Map the Assumptions Behind a Painting Program

A program plan can name an appealing goal without explaining how the activity is expected to contribute to it. An assumptions map makes that reasoning visible. It separates what the organizer will provide, what participants may do, what the activity produces and any change the organizer hopes will follow.

Use this small map before choosing success measures or promising results to a partner. The Annie E. Casey Foundation’s theory-of-change guidance explains why teams should examine the assumptions connecting activities, outcomes and goals. Its practical guidance also considers external conditions. The worksheet here is an original, limited planning exercise rather than a complete evaluation framework.

Begin with a purpose people have discussed

Write the intended group, the purpose agreed locally and the decision the map should inform. Include relevant input from intended participants and identify whose perspective is missing. A painting program should not be treated as wanted merely because the organizer likes the idea.

For example, a group might want an optional session in which participants try and describe a painting choice. That is more specific than “increase creativity.” Use the organization program guide to settle responsibilities and the broad format before mapping a particular activity.

Separate the activity from its proposed result

The existence of two samples does not establish the last result. The person may have followed instructions without noticing a difference, or the samples may be difficult to compare. Keeping those possibilities visible helps the team avoid treating a completed task as proof of learning.

Ask what must be true for the link to work

1. Name the reason. Explain why this activity could contribute to the intended result. Distinguish a supported observation from an organizer’s working belief.
2. Name the conditions. In the example, the instructions need to be usable, the comparison needs to be visible to the participant, and there must be a suitable way to respond.
3. Look for another explanation. A person might already know the choice they describe. Their answer alone would not show that the session caused new learning.
4. Identify a challenging observation. If willing participants repeatedly cannot tell what changed between samples, revisit the task or the expected link instead of claiming success from completion.
5. Choose a review point. Name who will examine the assumption and when the team can revise the plan.

Keep the response optional. A participant’s decision to pass is not evidence that they failed to learn, and the organizer need not collect private explanations.

Record uncertainty where it belongs

Add one row for conditions outside the team’s control, such as a venue change that removes the planned comparison space. State what is confirmed, uncertain or missing. If the map depends on an unsupported promise about health, productivity or social change, narrow the proposed result rather than inventing evidence.

Once the reasoning is clear, choose a small amount of relevant information through the practical measurement guide. Later, use the results-reporting guide to distinguish what happened from what remains uncertain.

Assumptions-map questions

Is attendance an outcome?

Attendance is a useful participation count. It does not by itself demonstrate the further change a program hopes to support. Label each measure according to what it actually shows.

What if the team disagrees about a link?

Record the different explanations and the information that could help examine them. The map is useful when it exposes uncertainty before that uncertainty becomes a promise.